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Monday, November 7, 2011

Revised govt estimates show new poverty high

The ranks of America's poor are greater than previously known, reaching a new level of 49.1 million — or 16 percent — due to rising medical costs and other expenses that make it harder for people to stay afloat, according to new census estimates.

The numbers released Monday are part of a first-ever supplemental poverty measure aimed at providing a fuller picture of poverty. It is considered experimental and does not replace the Census Bureau's official poverty formula, which continues to determine eligibility and distribution of billions of dollars in federal aid for the poor.

Based on the revised formula, the number of poor people exceeds the record 46.2 million, or 15.1 percent, that was officially reported in September.

Broken down by groups, Americans 65 or older sustained the largest increases in poverty under the revised poverty formula — nearly doubling to 15.9 percent, or 1 in 6 — because of medical expenses that are not accounted for in the official rate. Those include rising Medicare premiums, deductibles and expenses for prescription drugs.

Working-age adults ages 18-64 also saw increases in poverty — from 13.7 percent to 15.2 percent — due mostly to commuting and child care costs.  For the first time, the share of Hispanics living in poverty surpassed that of African-Americans, 28.2 percent to 25.4 percent. That is due to an increase in the poverty rate for Hispanics under the new measure because of lower participation of immigrants and non-English speakers in government aid programs such as housing and food stamps.

Due to new adjustments for geographical variations in costs of living, people residing in the suburbs, the Northeast and West were the regions mostly likely to have poor people — nearly 1 in 5 in the West.

Economists have long criticized the official poverty rate as inadequate. Based on a half-century-old government formula, the official rate continues to assume the average family spends one-third of its income on food. Those costs have actually shrunk to a much smaller share — more like one-seventh — failing to account for other expenses such as out-of-pocket medical care, child care and commuting.

The official formula also does not consider non-cash government aid when calculating income, such as food stamps and tax credits, which have increased in the last few years.

Kathleen Short, a research economist at the Census Bureau, said many of the shifts in poverty reflect the large numbers of older people who hover near the poverty line after receiving Social Security cash payments. The poverty line is defined under the official measure as $11,139 for an individual, or $22,314 for a family of four.

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